The guessing game is almost over.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will release its first of six rankings on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN), finally revealing how the contenders for this season’s 12-team field stack up. The 13 members of the group — four power-conference athletic directors, two Group of 6 athletic directors, six at-large members consisting of former players, coaches and administrators, and one former journalist — have two full months of data to evaluate. They will begin deliberating on Monday and finish on Tuesday around lunch.
Their task, as stated in their written protocol, hasn’t changed: “Select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff, and then assign the teams to the playoff bracket.”
It might be one of the more difficult initial rankings in recent years with so many teams having already suffered multiple losses.
How far do they drop Ohio State after the Buckeyes’ loss to USC? Do they honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in spite of a bad loss to UCF? How do they sort through two-loss SEC teams?
Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here’s a look at what the selection committee might do on Tuesday.
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Ranking | Bracket
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: This might actually be the easiest decision the committee has to make, as the Canes remain the total package. With two Heisman candidates in quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney, plus four ACC road wins and one of the top teams in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, the Canes should be a no-brainer for the committee’s top spot. They’ve got the eye test and the statistics.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could question Miami’s strength of schedule, and others could simply think Georgia is a better team in spite of a home loss to Auburn. Miami’s schedule was ranked No. 60 entering Saturday, and the win at North Carolina probably won’t boost it too much.
Need to know: If Miami loses to Notre Dame, it could still make the playoff as the ACC champ. But if Wake Forest pulls off the upset in the ACC title game — and the Deacs are still the most likely team to face Miami in the ACC title game after a 51-7 drubbing of Virginia — it could open the door for two ACC teams to get in. Wake Forest would be guaranteed a spot as the ACC champion and Miami could claim a regular-season win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. It’s the second straight road game for Miami after traveling to North Carolina on Halloween, and it will likely be the last ranked opponent the Canes face during the regular season.
Why they could be here: Wins against Alabama and Florida — both away from Athens — plus Georgia’s talent on film give the Bulldogs a case for the committee’s top one-loss team on Tuesday night. After eight games, Georgia is averaging 41 points while holding its opponents to 14.9, making the Bulldogs one of the most complete teams on film and on paper. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has been one of the most efficient at his position with a QBR of 86.2.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how much the selection committee looks down on the Oct. 17 home loss to Auburn and Georgia’s overall schedule strength, which was the worst in the SEC heading into Saturday. A strong schedule can help offset a loss in the committee meeting room, but Georgia played a sub-.500 FCS team in Tennessee State, a sub-.500 Western Kentucky team, and Arkansas — three opponents Georgia outscored 178-40. Some committee members could be more impressed with BYU’s win against Notre Dame than Georgia’s win against Alabama. Against Auburn and Alabama, Georgia had a combined four turnovers and 11 penalties.
Need to know: How high Georgia is ranked on Tuesday night depends in part on how much the committee values its Oct. 10 win at Alabama. The Tide have lost two of their past three games (vs. Georgia and at Tennessee) and had a bye week. Alabama’s best win was Week 2 at Kentucky, which should be one of the committee’s top teams, but where is the Tide among the pack of two-loss contenders? And how does a win against Alabama stack up against BYU’s victory over Notre Dame?
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Ole Miss. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia at least a 60% chance to win each of its remaining games. The game against the Rebels will likely be the highest-ranked opponent Georgia faces during the rest of the regular season, and could be an important head-to-head result if Ole Miss wins and both teams have two losses.
Why they could be here: The win against Notre Dame continues to lift BYU in spite of a bad Week 8 loss at UCF. So does BYU’s schedule, which includes a strong win against 6-2 Arizona and has ranked in the top 10 in schedule strength and ESPN’s strength of record metric. That can help offset a loss, especially one that was in double overtime on the road. With BYU and Notre Dame at 7-1, there’s a good chance the selection committee continues to honor the head-to-head result in its first ranking. Saturday’s narrow win against Arizona State won’t beef up BYU’s résumé much, but a second straight loss to an unranked team would have been devastating.
Why they could be lower: Statistically, BYU has been good — not great. Notre Dame and Utah, for example, have higher scoring averages while holding their opponents to fewer points. Of the three of them, Notre Dame is the statistical leader in both categories (40.5 points per game/13.4 points per game allowed). BYU is averaging 32 points and allowing 18.8. The committee doesn’t have to honor the head-to-head win against Notre Dame if the members don’t think the teams are comparable.
Need to know: BYU would lock up a spot in the CFP as the Big 12 champion, but it could also earn a bid as the Big 12 runner-up if it beats Utah in Week 10 and loses a rematch to the Utes in the conference title game. It would depend in part on how BYU stacks up against other two-loss contenders — and the loss to UCF could be a problem in those comparisons — but the Cougars would claim a regular-season win against the Big 12 champs, and that could help their case.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Utah. It will be BYU’s first road game against a ranked opponent, and it’s a rivalry game that has Big 12 and CFP implications.
Why they could be here: The biggest reason is that the selection committee could still honor the head-to-head result against BYU, acting as a ceiling for the Irish — for now. Notre Dame’s sluggish start Saturday against Navy after a bye week to prepare for the Midshipmen’s unique offense won’t impress, but after a first-half scare, Notre Dame scored 21 unanswered points to reassert control in a lopsided win against the now 2-6 Midshipmen. Notre Dame’s already average schedule strength took a hit Saturday after Wisconsin (5-3) was embarrassed by Iowa 30-0. Along with the season-opening win against the Badgers, though, it was the second neutral-site victory for Notre Dame, adding a little more value than a home win to go along with two true road victories at Purdue and North Carolina.
Why they could be higher: BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 on Oct. 17, but the selection committee doesn’t always honor the head-to-head result. If the group thinks the Irish are better than BYU, the members will rank them as such if they deem the gap between the teams is wide enough that they’re not comparable in spite of their identical records. BYU’s loss at unranked UCF was worse than Notre Dame’s at BYU. Notre Dame has been a more complete team, ranking in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiencies, according to ESPN Analytics. BYU has been outside the top 12 in both.
Need to know: Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the playoff if it’s ranked in the committee’s top 12 on Selection Day, and the one-loss Irish should be a lock to appear in the first ranking Tuesday — but how high? That will be a clue as to how much margin for error Notre Dame might have in Week 10 against Miami. There’s no question a second loss would open the door for debate, but how much depends, in part, on where Notre Dame begins.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives Notre Dame at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
Why they could be here: The Utes avoided a trap game at Cincinnati and controlled the matchup from the onset, jumping out to a 42-6 halftime lead. It was exactly the kind of dominant performance Utah needed heading into the first ranking, as the Utes struggled to beat Colorado 27-24 on Oct. 17, and needed a comeback win against Houston last week — the only ranked opponent it has faced this season. Utah has played one of the easiest schedules of any of the CFP contenders, but earning a third Big 12 road win will help that in the committee meeting room this week — especially winning against a Cincinnati team that knocked off Texas Tech in Week 9.
Why they could be higher: The committee zeros in on two metrics to help determine how well a team plays — efficiency and explosiveness — and Utah has been one of the country’s more explosive teams. The Utes have 46 plays of at least 20 yards and six plays of at least 50 yards (four running, two passing). Utah has also ranked in the top 10 in total efficiency, according to ESPN Analytics.
Need to know: BYU and Utah play each other in Week 10 and could both get into the CFP as a Big 12 champ and runner-up if they face each other a second time in the conference championship game. If BYU beats Utah during the regular season, but loses to the Utes in the Big 12 title game, it would have a case as a two-loss runner-up, with wins against Notre Dame, Arizona and the eventual Big 12 champ. The flip side would be true if Utah beats BYU during the regular season but loses to the Cougars in the Big 12 title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives Utah at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
Why they could be here: Back-to-back overtime wins against unranked opponents will probably keep the Hoosiers out of first-round bye contention, but they are still one of the committee’s top one-loss teams. The group will know that Indiana’s narrow 19-15 home loss to Ohio State came with Buckeyes starting quarterback Julian Sayin in the lineup for the bulk of the game, so it will still be regarded as one of the best losses in the country. Indiana’s defense has been one of the nation’s best, holding opponents to just 12.4 points per game, but its offense has been average (32.4 points per game) compared with other contenders such as Miami (43.8), Georgia (41), Notre Dame (40.4) and LSU (40).
Why they could be lower: Indiana lost the biggest game it played (Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State) and has had to muscle out wins against most everyone else. Indiana’s offense has struggled for about a month, and quarterback Josh Hoover was benched at halftime Saturday against Minnesota after he threw his second interception of the season. He hasn’t been at full strength, took a hit at the end of the first half and backup Grant Wilson took over facing a 10-7 deficit. The Hoosiers don’t have any wins against current ranked opponents, but that will likely change after USC’s upset of Ohio State.
Need to know: The Hoosiers still have one of the best chances to reach the Big Ten championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have at least an 80% chance to win each of their remaining games (vs. USC, at Washington, vs. Purdue).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. USC. The trip to Washington won’t be easy, but the Trojans are the most talented opponent left.
Why they could be here: UCLA entered Saturday ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 opponent would have just a 23.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents. UCLA is averaging 33.5 points while holding its opponents to just 13.4. The problem is that UCLA’s stats have come against opponents with a combined winning percentage of 45.6% according to ESPN Analytics, which ranks No. 114 in the country.
Why they could be lower: Undefeated has never guaranteed teams the highest rankings throughout the history of the CFP. If the group doesn’t think UCLA is passing the eye test, that can outweigh its unblemished record. The committee considers team efficiency, and UCLA has been out of the top 30 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 15 in total efficiency. The Bruins’ schedule is also one of the easiest in the Big Ten so far. UCLA’s 17-15 win at Oregon has been somewhat diminished after the Ducks have fallen out of the CFP race, and the committee will know that starting Oregon quarterback Dante Moore missed that game while in concussion protocol.
Need to know: The selection committee considers margin of victory, but it caps it at 24 points, so there isn’t any incentive to run up the score. Although Nevada is now a 3-5 Mountain West opponent, the committee protocol states that UCLA did what it was supposed to do and left no doubt in the room that it was the better team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at Michigan. The Wolverines have been one of the worst offenses in the country, but the defense will give UCLA one of the biggest challenges it has faced this season. Michigan is holding its opponents to 16.4 points per game, and UCLA is averaging 33.5.
Why they could be here: Kentucky entered its bye week leading the nation in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 8 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The committee will hold both of those in high regard, along with road wins, and Kentucky has three against SEC opponents Texas A&M, South Carolina and Oklahoma. Kentucky won’t wow anyone in the committee meeting room with its stats, though. The Wildcats rank outside the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and have won their games by an average of 8.1 points.
Why they could be lower: Though Kentucky’s schedule strength is above average, its play is generally not, and the committee will have to weigh those two things. The Wildcats are one of the worst teams in the country in third-down conversions (33.7%) and penalties (9.3/game), and defensively, Kentucky has struggled to stop opponents on third downs (48.3%). Kentucky’s pass defense is also one of the worst in the FBS, allowing almost 240 passing yards per game.
Need to know: Kentucky’s true place in the playoff will be determined over the next month against SEC opponents Tennessee, Florida and Mizzou, and then ending with rival Louisville out of the ACC. It’s the 10th-most difficult remaining schedule in the country, which is why it’s important to see where the committee ranks Kentucky on Tuesday night. Kentucky’s placing in the first ranking will shed some light on how legitimate the committee thinks the Wildcats are, and how much margin for error they have down the stretch.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Tennessee. The Vols beat Alabama 26-10, a significant result, considering the Tide were the only opponent that knocked off Kentucky.
Why they could be here: Texas has a case to be the committee’s top two-loss team because of its Week 2 win against Ohio State that happened before quarterback Julian Sayin was injured, and wins against Tennessee and Ole Miss. Saturday’s home win against Mississippi State won’t impress the committee much, but what the Longhorns have accomplished against the fourth-toughest schedule in the country to this point will.
Why they could be lower: The Longhorns have been a flawed team all season, plagued by turnovers, penalties and an inconsistent offense that shows flashes of explosiveness followed by ineptitude. Back-to-back losses to Florida and Oklahoma were damaging, considering they have now combined for seven losses and could both be out of the committee’s top 25 on Tuesday. Texas has only one true road win — Sept. 26 at Tennessee — while other contenders have boosted their résumés with more.
Need to know: Three of the Longhorns’ last four games are on the road — at Missouri, at LSU and at Texas A&M to end the regular season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. If both teams still have only two losses heading into that game, it could determine which one earns an at-large bid.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes aren’t the same team without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin, and that was evident in their loss at USC on Saturday — the first opportunity for the selection committee to see what Ohio State looks like with freshman quarterback Luke Fahey in the lineup. Fahey wasn’t a disaster — he didn’t throw an interception — but he’s learning on the fly, and USC’s defense played well. With two losses, the Buckeyes are now comparable to Texas, and the committee would likely honor the Longhorns’ head-to-head Week 2 win, which happened with Sayin in the lineup.
Why they could be higher: Ohio State beat Indiana — even if it was by a (left) foot and the Oct. 2 win at Iowa got a boost Saturday after the Hawkeyes embarrassed Wisconsin in a 30-0 shutout. The Buckeyes are also ranked in the top 15 in strength of schedule and ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Need to know: The committee could also consider USC as one of its top two-loss teams if it honors Saturday’s head-to-head win against the Buckeyes. The difference, though, is that USC’s losses were to Oregon and Wisconsin, and they might not be CFP Top 25 teams on Tuesday.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Michigan. Anything can happen in The Game, especially with a freshman quarterback against one of the nation’s top defenses.
Why they could be here: The Rebels’ 30-point victory left no doubt that Ole Miss was the better team against Auburn on Saturday, and the Rebels did it without injured running back Kewan Lacy (dislocated shoulder). The Rebels’ best wins are against LSU and Missouri — both ranked opponents. The committee considers how and where teams lost, and would at least discuss that both Ole Miss losses were on the road against respectable SEC opponents Texas and Florida. The lopsided defeat to the Gators happened one week after a highly emotional win against LSU and former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, and the Rebels fell short of an epic comeback at Texas.
Why they could be higher: Ole Miss and Ohio State lost to Texas in Austin, but the committee might think the Rebels have better wins, including Sept. 19 vs. LSU and Oct. 17 vs. Missouri. Entering this week, Ole Miss had the No. 2-ranked schedule in the country, trailing only Oklahoma.
Need to know: Former Ole Miss All-American tight end Wesley Walls is partially recused, which means he can stay in the room during discussions about Ole Miss but can’t participate in any conversations or voting about the Rebels. Walls, who was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2014, was a standout linebacker and defensive end his first three seasons in Oxford and is still a familiar face around the program.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Georgia. The Bulldogs will be the last ranked opponent Ole Miss faces during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The Tigers had a bye week, but they moved into the bubble spot after their Week 8 win against Auburn. The selection committee would likely have LSU behind the two teams it lost to — Ole Miss and Kentucky — but the Tigers have outscored their past two SEC opponents by a combined 69-17. The committee might not penalize the Tigers too much for the losses, considering Ole Miss and Kentucky could be in the top 12 on Tuesday night. The loss to Kentucky was on the road by one point in overtime, and the loss at Ole Miss was under unusually emotional circumstances with coach Lane Kiffin’s first return to Oxford. Those factors are likely to come up in the conversation.
Why they could be lower: LSU is still searching for its first true statement win, and though it has ample opportunities looming, the selection committee doesn’t look ahead. LSU’s win at Auburn was its first road win of the season.
Need to know: LSU has the toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers had a well-timed bye week to prepare for three straight games against ranked opponents — Alabama, Texas and Tennessee.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 55% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 3 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 4 Notre Dame
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Utah
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 10 Ohio State at No. 7 UCLA
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Kentucky
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Utah winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 11 Ole Miss/No. 6 Indiana winner vs. No. 3 BYU
No. 10 Ohio State/No. 7 UCLA winner vs. No. 2 Georgia
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Kentucky winner vs. No. 1 Miami
